SK hynix earns a record quarter from AI memory, and says the shortage will last until 2030

If you have priced a laptop, RAM or an SSD this year, you have felt this story. The memory chips in those devices are the same chips AI data centres want most. One of the biggest makers, South Korea’s SK hynix, has just had the best three months in its history.

The SK hynix earnings matter beyond Korea. The company makes HBM, short for high-bandwidth memory: stacks of fast chips placed next to the processor in AI accelerators such as Nvidia’s. Now it says demand will beat supply until 2030. That suggests memory may stay expensive for years, not months.

SK hynix earnings: 104.6 trillion won and an 80% margin

The company’s own figures for July to September 2026 (its third quarter):

• Revenue: 104.6 trillion won, the first quarter above 100 trillion won. CNBC put it at about US$78.8 billion. That is 32% more than the second quarter and over four times the level of a year ago.
• Operating profit: 83.3 trillion won (about US$62.8 billion, as converted by Korea JoongAng Daily), up 38% on the second quarter. That is 80 won of profit from every 100 won of sales.
• Net profit: 39.8 trillion won, up 216% on a year ago but down 58% from 93.9 trillion won in the second quarter.

Operating profit beat the 76.72 trillion won analysts expected, according to LSEG figures quoted by CNBC. Net profit fell well short of forecasts. The results are preliminary and may change during the independent audit.

SK hynix says shipments of HBM4, its newest AI memory, began in earnest, and sales of server memory rose sharply. It expects HBM4 to overtake the older HBM3E in volume and revenue this quarter.

Five-year deals behind a “shortage until 2030” call

New factories take years to build and the newest processes are hard to master. So SK hynix expects “the structure in which demand exceeds supply to persist through 2030”.

It is backing that view with contracts. It has signed long-term deals, usually five years, with 14 major customers, including large cloud providers. They already cover more than half of its capacity for 2027 and 2028, with prices allowed to move within an agreed range.

It is also sharing the money, days after it halted a planned share sale for its SSD maker Solidigm. SK hynix plans about 100 trillion won in shareholder returns for 2026, through dividends and share buybacks. The third-quarter dividend is 20,000 won per share. Half of it is a special payout from gains on its stake in Kioxia, a Japanese memory maker.

The 58% fall in net profit nobody has explained

Here is the part that does not fit the celebration. Operating profit rose 38% from the second quarter, yet net profit fell 58%. The release does not say why, and we found no explanation from the company. Until it explains, investors are reading a record quarter with one large question inside it.

Why your next phone or PC may cost more

For most readers, the point is price. In practice, when chipmakers sell their best output to AI customers on five-year deals, less is left for phones, laptops and home PCs. Our report on TSMC’s careful plans for 2027 points the same way: rising part prices are squeezing consumer devices. If you need a new device, waiting for RAM prices to fall may mean a long wait.

If you follow SK hynix stock, directly or through a fund, the payouts are real. But memory has always been a boom-and-bust business. This is not financial advice.

Why this boom looks steadier than past ones, but not risk-free

There is a lot to respect here. SK hynix bet early on AI memory and is turning that into long contracts, strong cash (98.7 trillion won in net cash, the company says) and money returned to owners. Five-year deals with price ranges are a meaningful step away from the wild price swings of past cycles.

The risks are just as clear. An 80% margin attracts rivals such as Samsung and Micron, and SK hynix itself plans to raise investment “significantly” next year. In past cycles, memory booms usually ended when too many new factories opened at once. And as we noted when Elon Musk warned of a shakeout among AI cloud firms, much of this demand rests on AI spending that still has to pay for itself.

On balance, SK hynix looks well placed for the next two years, but an unexplained profit drop and a rush to add supply make “shortage until 2030” a forecast to test, not a promise.

Samsung, its biggest rival, is expected to publish its full results soon. If it tells the same story, plan on paying more for memory for a while yet.